Clarifying Questions
- What type of hotels we are considering?
- We are only including hotels rated 3 stars and above, as these are the establishments that typically provide mini bottles of shampoo and conditioner to their guests.
- Are we including private accommodations like Airbnb in the estimate?
- No, we are excluding private accommodations such as Airbnb and focusing solely on traditional hotel rooms.
- Is the estimate based on all regions within India?
- No, we are excluding rural areas from the estimate, as they typically do not have 3-star and above hotels. We are focusing on urban areas and their hotel visitors.
The Hotel Visitor Approach
This approach starts with the total population of India and segments it into rural and urban areas. We then focus on the urban population, further refining our estimate by analyzing income categories and their likelihood to visit hotels. We consider the number of hotel visitors, the frequency of their stays, and the average number of mini bottles used during their stays.
This method involves several steps and calculations, which are detailed below. The final numbers are provided for review and further analysis.
Initial Approach
The initial approach involves breaking down the total population and focusing on hotel visitors in urban areas. We estimate the number of mini bottles produced based on hotel occupancy and visitor frequency. Here's the breakdown:
Breakdown of the Approach
1. Population Segmentation:
- Rural vs. Urban: Out of India’s total population of 140 million, we divide it into rural (60%) and urban (40%) areas. Rural areas are excluded from the estimate since they typically do not have 3-star and above hotels.
2. Income-Based Hotel Visitors:
- We further segment the urban population into income categories: Lower Class (LC), Lower Middle Class (LMC), Upper Middle Class (UMC), and Upper Class (UC). Only individuals in the UMC and UC categories are considered potential hotel visitors, as they are more likely to stay in 3-star and above hotels.
3. Hotel Visitors and Stay Frequency:
- We estimate the number of hotel visitors based on income categories and their likelihood to stay in hotels. For those who visit hotels, we assume different frequencies of stay: 2 days (55% of visitors) and 5 days (45% of visitors).
4. Mini Bottles Usage:
- We calculate the total number of mini bottles required based on the number of uses per unit (1 unit works for 10 uses). We then adjust this figure based on the average hotel occupancy rate of 70%.
5. Final Estimate:
- After calculating the total number of mini bottles used and adjusting for hotel occupancy, we estimate the annual production of hotel-sized mini bottles of shampoo and conditioner in India to be approximately 4,092,480 units.
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